The majority of participants in the Kitco News Gold Survey expect to see higher prices next week, but those who see weaker or prices unchanged were equally divided, as the gold market continues to try and heal after the recent sharp break in prices.
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 34 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those 25 participants, 13 see prices up, while six see prices down, and six see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.
Jimmy Tintle, analyst at Transworld Futures, sees higher prices. Like several participants who see gold prices up, the fact that the metal has held $1,600 an ounce suggests that gold is trying to build a base as it tries to regain its uptrend. He said he believes that the hedge fund and other investment selling that pressured gold has abated, which takes away one bearish overhang. When equities fell sharply many investors sought to cash out profitable gold positions to shore up failing positions in stocks, market watchers said. If the dollar continues its climb that can put a cap on gold strength. Tintle said gold might trade to $1,725 next week.
Those who see weaker prices said the dollar strength is one of the reasons gold might be down next week. Also, several mentioned the lack of growth in open interest in the futures market as prices moved off of their spike lows sub-$1,600. If open interest isn’t growing, that could mean the rebound from the lows isn’t from new buying, but could be from short covering – sellers who were buying back positions to close a trade.
Several participants said they see flat prices and said the volatility in the market hasn’t ceased. They said prices could still gyrate next week, but ultimately leave prices not far from current levels.
Friday September 30, 2011 12:21 PM